President Trump’s New National Security Strategy: Implications for Taiwan

There is a wealth of good news for Taiwan in the new NSS, offering the potential for an even stronger Taiwan and a closer U.S.-Taiwan relationship.

 

Analysts around the world are busy dissecting U.S. President Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy (NSS) unveiled earlier this week. Taiwan and U.S. allies in the Asia Pacific are eager to extract the potential implications of the document for their own security.

Explicitly, Taiwan is only mentioned once in the document, in the following passage:

We will maintain our strong ties with Taiwan in accordance with our “One China” policy, including our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide for Taiwan’s legitimate defense needs and deter coercion.

That minimalist statement is noteworthy for what it does not say: the absence of explicit references to the Three Communiqués that laid the groundwork for overall U.S.-China relations, but especially for the meaning of “one China” for Taiwan’s future. Beijing wants the communiqués invoked every time U.S.-China or U.S.-Taiwan or even China-Taiwan relations are mentioned. And it wants the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) to be ignored entirely.

Taiwan prefers the reverse prioritization and some in Taipei expressed concern when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, asked about Sino-U.S. relations, referred only to the communiqués. It wants the TRA emphasized, exclusively if possible. This NSS formulation is intended to mollify both sides, at least partially, for the present.

But otherwise, if taken up by forward-looking leaders in both countries the statement is rich in its implications for U.S.-Taiwan relations.

To start with, there is encouragement for Taiwan in the very first paragraph of President Trump’s introduction to the NSS document, where he reminds the reader of his campaign pledge “to advance our values.” Any time an American president talks about American values, Taiwanese, and all people who share a commitment to universal values, can take heart. No hegemonic arrogance is implied here: those democratic values — individual liberty, human rights, rule of law — are not universal because they are American; they are American because they are universal. (“All men are … endowed by their Creator.”)

The president’s letter goes on to describe the challenges he found upon taking office, and which he intends to confront: Rival powers were aggressively undermining American interests around the globe. As he makes explicit later in the document, China is demonstrably one of those hostile powers. And Taiwan is clearly a key element in the Sino-U.S. relationship. Therefore, on strategic as well as moral grounds, the people of Taiwan can be assured of their importance in the U.S. calculus of its national interest.

[T]he United States will no longer tolerate economic aggression. Taiwan knows something about that constant threat from the People’s Republic of China. Standing against such coercion is the TRA.

The whole world is lifted by America’s renewal and the reemergence of American leadership. Much as China’s leaders would wish it otherwise, the people and government of democratic Taiwan are part of that world and will share in the protection and benefits of a renewed and reemergent U.S. leadership.

We will pursue this beautiful vision — a world of strong, sovereign, and independent nations, each with its own cultures and dreams, thriving side-by-side in prosperity, freedom, and peace. Not a bad vision when applied to Taiwan, whose own dream for the future is quite different from Xi Jinping’s “China dream.”

[W]e will look at the world with clear eyes and fresh thinking. This is welcome news for those who believe U.S. policy toward Taiwan will benefit from a new approach. The president has already demonstrated his willingness to think anew about Taiwan when he accepted President Tsai Ing-wen’s congratulatory telephone call on Dec. 2 last year and when he warned Beijing that the “one China” policy is no longer sacrosanct. (President Tsai deserves credit for her courage in making the call and her prescience in believing this American president would accept it.)

We will promote a balance of power that favors the United States, our allies, and our partners. Taiwan surely fits that bill.

We will never lose sight of our values and their capacity to inspire, uplift, and renew.  Taiwan has nobly demonstrated how those values — again, universal in nature — have moved it from dictatorship to democracy. President Trump’s thinking is quite in line with the mandate of the TRA.

 

Dissecting the NSS

Now to the document itself — what’s in it for Taiwan?

A strong America is in the vital interests of not only the American people, but also those around the world who want to partner with the United States in pursuit of shared interests, values, and aspirations.

The people of Taiwan have shown themselves to be willing partners in that endeavor.

[P]eace, security, and prosperity depend on strong, sovereign nations that respect their citizens at home and cooperate to advance peace abroad. 

This is very hopeful language for Taiwan which daily demonstrates its respect for its citizens, in contrast to its neighbor across the Taiwan Strait.

[U]naccountable political power is tyranny.

Ditto.

We recognize the invaluable advantages that our strong relationships with allies and partners deliver.

Advantage Taiwan.

[O]ther actors steadily implemented their long-term plans to challenge America and to advance agendas opposed to the United States, our allies, and our partners. 

We are not left long to know which other actor in Asia constitutes such a threat.

China and Russia challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity. They are determined to make economies less free and less fair, to grow their militaries, and to control information and data to repress their societies and expand their influence.

Taiwan is a critical strategic asset on the side of the free economies under Chinese attack.

[T]he dictatorships of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Islamic Republic of Iran are determined to destabilize regions, threaten Americans and our allies, and brutalize their own people.

China’s fellow dictatorship has been the principal enabler of the odious Pyongyang regime and has transferred significant lethal technology to Teheran.

[T]hey are fundamentally contests between those who value human dignity and freedom and those who oppress individuals and enforce uniformity.

The world knows on which side of that moral line Taiwan stands.

These competitions require the United States to rethink the policies of the past two decades — policies based on the assumption that engagement with rivals and their inclusion in international institutions and global commerce would turn them into benign actors and trustworthy partners. For the most part, this premise turned out to be false. 

The path taken by Communist China is Exhibit No. 1 for that devastating but factual conclusion. If even Richard Nixon came to worry in later years that America had created “a Frankenstein [monster],” President Trump is refreshingly astute in questioning the 1972 bargain made on a premise that has proved illusory. The “one China” concept and the diminution of Taiwan’s status was the sad price paid for that historic strategic mistake.  There is now hope, and opportunity, to rectify the injustice it wrought.

The path taken by Communist China is Exhibit No. 1 for that devastating but factual conclusion. If even Richard Nixon came to worry in later years that America had created “a Frankenstein [monster],” President Trump is refreshingly astute in questioning the 1972 bargain made on a premise that has proved illusory. The “one China” concept and the diminution of Taiwan’s status was the sad price paid for that historic strategic mistake.  There is now hope, and opportunity, to rectify the injustice it wrought.

Rival actors use propaganda and other means to try to discredit democracy. They advance anti-Western views and spread false information to create divisions among ourselves, our allies, and our partners. 

In their relationship, Washington and Taipei must not allow such tactics to succeed.

We will compete with all tools of national power to ensure that regions of the world are not dominated by one power . . .  Allies and partners magnify our power. We expect them to shoulder a fair share of the burden of responsibility to protect against common threats.

U.S.-Taiwan security cooperation serves the strategic interests of both.

Detect and contain biothreats at their source: We will work with other countries to detect and mitigate outbreaks early to prevent the spread of disease. We will encourage other countries to invest in basic health care systems and to strengthen global health security across the intersection of human and animal health to prevent infectious disease outbreaks.

For decades, in contrast to China’s role, Taiwan has been a model in responding to the threats of pandemic diseases such as Avian flu, AIDS, H1N1, and others, and has been a world leader in investing in basic healthcare systems. It has earned the right to full participation in the World Health Organization, and at some point the odds are that the Trump administration will end China’s selfish and self-defeating opposition.

Sever sources of strength: We will disrupt the financial, materiel, and personnel supply chains of terrorist organizations. We will sever their financing and protect the U.S. and international  financial systems from abuse.

Once again, Taiwan, unlike China, has proved itself a responsible international citizen by actively participating in the Proliferation Security Initiative, intercepting contraband North Korean weapons, and cutting off trade and financial connections with Pyongyang. Beijing instead has been a willing partner in the Kim Jong-un regime’s illicit activities.

China and Russia want to shape a world antithetical to U.S. values and interests. China seeks to displace the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, expand the reaches of its state-driven economic model, and reorder the region in its favor. 

Taiwan’s critical geostrategic location in the first island chain makes it a vital element in Western efforts to ensure the freedom of the seas and the skies in the Indo-Pacific.

For decades, U.S. policy was rooted in the belief that support for China’s rise and for its integration into the post-war international order would liberalize China. Contrary to our hopes, China expanded its power at the expense of the sovereignty of others. 

Nixon thought a Communist China, weak and poor but resentful and aggressive, would be bad for the world. Misguided Western policies over the decades have shown that a prosperous and powerful Communist China, still resentful and aggressive, is even worse. Taiwan is a true strategic partner in defending against that threat.

The scourge of the world today is a small group of rogue regimes that violate all principles of free and civilized states . . . North Korea is ruled as a ruthless dictatorship without regard for human dignity. For more than 25 years, it has pursued nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in defiance of every commitment it has made. Today, these missiles and weapons threaten the United States and our allies. The longer we ignore threats from countries determined to proliferate and develop weapons of mass destruction, the worse such threats become, and the fewer defensive options we have. 

The government that is most responsible for enabling the North Korean scourge is its “lips and teeth” fellow aggressor in Beijing. For decades it has exploited the Kim dynasty’s outrages to its own strategic advantage, diverting Western material and diplomatic resources; elevating China’s status as a “responsible stakeholder” and good-faith negotiating partner; leveraging Beijing’s position in trade, territorial, and Taiwan disputes; and fostering divisions in the U.S.-South Korea security relationship. For the gift of North Korea, the world must thank the Communist leaders in Beijing. Taiwan has been on the opposite side of that divide and should be rewarded for its loyalty with even greater U.S. support and high-level cooperation.

Reinforce economic ties with allies and partners: We will strengthen economic ties as a core aspect of our relationships with like-minded states and use our economic expertise, markets, and resources to bolster states threatened by our competitors.

Taiwan and the U.S. can do much together to strengthen bilateral economic ties and cooperation. The opportunities await the initiatives of both sides.

Allies and partners are a great strength of the United States. They add directly to U.S. political, economic, military, intelligence, and other capabilities. Together, the United States and our allies and partners represent well over half of the global GDP. None of our adversaries have comparable coalitions. We encourage those who want Allies and partners are a great strength of the United States. They add directly to U.S. political, economic, military, intelligence, and other capabilities. Together, the United States and our allies and partners represent well over half of the global GDP. None of our adversaries have comparable coalitions. 

As one of the partners that constitute part of the U.S.’ strength, Taiwan can play an even more integrated role in the economic, military, intelligence, and other domains.

The United States will prioritize its efforts in those organizations that serve American interests, to ensure that they are strengthened and supportive of the United States, our allies, and our partners. Where existing institutions and rules need modernizing, the United States will lead to update them.

An important way the U.S. can lead in updating and reforming international organizations is to ensure that the model nation of Taiwan is restored to its rightful place and alllowed full participation in global bodies.

All in all, there is a wealth of good news for Taiwan in the new NSS, offering the potential for an even stronger Taiwan and a closer U.S.-Taiwan relationship. The people of Taiwan continue to have a friend in the United States.

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